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Election Forecaster 538 Shifts Model, Predicts GOP Favored to Retake Senate

Republicans are now favored to retake the Senate on November 8, forecaster FiveThirtyEight predicted Tuesday for the first time since July.

FiveThirtyEight estimated Republicans are favored to take back the Senate with 51 seats. The Senate is currently split 50/50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.

The pollster appears to have shifted the Nevada race in favor of Republicans. Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt is challenging Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

Laxalt has led the race in 10 of the last 14 polls, with an average lead of nearly two points. Cortez Masto has outspent Laxalt by about $9 million, according to third quarter fundraising totals.

FiveThirtyEight changed its prediction after Breitbart News reported on Saturday that betting odds contradicted the pollster’s forecast. At the time, FiveThirtyEight gave Republicans only a 47 in 100 chance of reclaiming the Senate, while PredictIt odds showed Republicans had a 73/100 chance of retaking the Senate.

On Monday, Real Clear Politics forecasted that seven Senate races are tossups. Those include New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Washington State, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

To retake the Senate, Republicans need to hold Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and retake either Arizona, Nevada, Washington, New Hampshire, or Georgia to have a one seat majority in the Senate.


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