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Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Nearly Double Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

The lead for a Republican candidate has nearly doubled since last week on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday.

Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U.S. voters to the generic Democrat candidate’s 41 percent, a three-point improvement for the GOP since last week.

The poll showed that 25 days before the election, only four percent said they would vote for another candidate, while another seven said they were still not sure.

Nevertheless, a seven-point lead on the generic ballot less than four weeks away from the election is a good sign for the Republicans, who are looking to net five seats, win back the majority, and unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her speakership. In fact, the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.

Rasmussen noted that in October 2018 — before Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — the two major parties were tied on the generic ballot at 45 percent. And as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between Democrats and Republicans stayed extremely close, with Republicans only having a one-point advantage nationally, 46 percent to 45 percent.

However, in this poll, the Republican party showed a massive 16-point lead with independents over Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 30 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Additionally, 27 percent of black voters and 45 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. A Democrat candidate would garner support from 58 percent of black voters and 42 percent of other minority groups.

Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 85 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 82 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from October 9 to 13 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.


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